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Scientific journal Vestnik NSUEM

2014 year, number 3

ESTIMATION OF INFLUENCE OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY WITH GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL WITH AGGREGATED MARKETS UNITS

V.M. Gilmundinov1,2
1Novosibirsk State Technical University, Karl Marx ave., 20, Novosibirsk, Novosibirsk Region, 630073
2Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS, Lavrentiev ave., 17, Novosibirsk, Novosibirsk Region, 630090
Keywords: general equilibrium, mathematical model, monetary policy, inflation targeting, structural changes, macroeconomic forecasting

Abstract

The study concerns with methodological issues of extension of general equilibrium input-output models with assumption of macroeconomic policy shocks. A general equilibrium input-output model with aggregated monetary and currency markets is suggested for the Russian economy. The model is based on synthesis of macroeconometric and inputoutput approaches. A key feature of this model is endogeneity of inflation rates, interest rates and exchange rates. A macroeconomic forecast with various scenarios of monetary policy is given for the Russian economy for 2013-2015. The obtained results show inconsistency of current monetary policy in Russia with priorities in modernization of the economy.