System-Analytical Modeling of Changes in Temperature, Precipitation and Agroclimatic Potential of Siberia
Yu. B. KIRSTA
Abstract
The model for many-year dynamics of agroclimatic potential of territories is presented. The model describes agroecosystem dynamics with theoretically highest accuracy. Progress of phenological development of plants; monthly (including the winter) dynamics of soil humidity; crop formation and its bulk; many-year trends of average monthly air temperature, precipitation and anthropogenically influenced fertility of soils; dynamics of agroclimatic potential of territory were estimated simultaneously by numerically solving the inverse problem on the basis of many-year sets of actual wheat crops, long-term average monthly temperature and precipitation. The agricultural area of Siberia is considered as a case study. Information basis for a well-known Le Chatelier principle characterizing self-stabilization of agroecosystems and ecosystems has been revealed. Self-stabilization provides
